Monday, 10 October 2022

Question No. 1 - MMPC-006 - Marketing Management - MBA and MBA (Banking & Finance)

Solutions to Assignments

                            MBA and MBA (Banking & Finance)

MMPC-006 - Marketing Management

MMPC-006/TMA/JULY/2022

Question No. 1.                                                                                
(a) Define and discuss the term “Marketing”. Elaborate its scope and significance in an enterprise. 

Needs, Wants and Demands are always the starting point for marketing activities. Explain with a suitable example. 

Marketing is a very exciting and highly challenging field. It requires individual interest with a flair for creativity for success. Congratulations! You have embarked on the study of an exciting subject, which will boost your creativity and imagination in every given marketing situation in your career down the line.
Marketing is everywhere most of the tasks we do and most of the things we handle are linked to marketing. Marketing is an activity. Marketing activities and strategies result in making products available that satisfy customers while making profits for the companies that offer the products. Your morning tea, the newspaper, your breakfast, the dress you put on for the day, the vehicle you drive, the mobile in your pocket, the quick lunch you have at the fast food joint, the PC at your desk, your internet service provider, your e-mail ID almost everything that you use and everything that is around you, has been touched by marketing. Marketing has its imprint on them all depending on the product and the context/experience the imprint may be visible or subtle. But it is very much there. Marketing permeates most of your daily activities. Marketing is an omnipresent entity.
Marketing refers to the process of ascertaining consumer needs, converting them into products and services, and then moving the product or service to the final consumer segment with emphasis on profitability and customer satisfaction, and ensuring the optimum use of the resources available to the organization.
Marketing is the process of planning and executing the conception, pricing, promotion, and distribution of ideas, goods, and services to create exchanges that satisfy individuals and organizational objectives. According to Philip Kotler, marketing is a social and managerial process by which individuals and groups obtain what they need and want through creating and exchanging products and value with others. The author has considered marketing as a social process where interaction of people is an essential component of it. Through this interaction the persuasion for selling the products or services begins. Thus marketing is purely purchase decision of the customer but through continuous marketing initiatives at different stages. Marketing starts before the production of the goods and continues even after the selling of the products. Thus it is assumed marketing is a continuous process. While the activities pertaining to identification of the needs, wants and demands of the customer, then designing of a suitable product to meet the needs, giving name to the product and converting it to a brand by communicating it to the customers.

The American Marketing Association defines marketing as follows: “Marketing is the performance of business activities that directs the flow of goods and services from producer to consumer or user”.

Later on the American Marketing Association revised its definition of marketing as “the activity, set of institutions, and processes for creating, communicating, delivering, and exchanging offerings that have value for customers, clients, partners, and society at large.” This definition attempted to highlight the importance of exchange processes that occur between the seller and the buyer. As we move on to discuss about the subject matter of marketing, we would understand the meaning of this definition better

Exchange Process: Let’s first look into the meaning and importance in marketing management. Primarily the term exchange means “giving or receiving something in return for something else” i.e. in marketing parlance an individual or a customer will simply obtain the firms product or service offering to satisfy his need or want in exchange of money thus leading to exchange process between two entities. For example if a person hires a Uber service for his travel from destination x to y and the money paid as fare in lieu of the trip is an exchange process. This exchange process can extend into strong relationship marketing and we enter into exchange relationships all the time. Through relationship marketing we build a long-term association with the customer. In the above example of Uber, if the customer is satisfied by the service then we may plan to use the same services in future as well and intend to become a loyal customer with Uber. While Uber by way of delivering value to customers, a relationship with customers is developed. Thus marketing is earning profit by building relationship with customer through satisfying their needs and wants. The same explanation is applicable for a product as well.

We can see that marketing, as per this definition, starts with a ‘Product’. This is very common idea among many people, for example, in advertising agencies, as they normally are required to advertise to sell a product, which already exists. Similarly, salesmen are also given ‘products’ and asked to sell them. Therefore, to them marketing often, starts with a product. However, this is only a narrow view of the concept of marketing.

the definition of Marketing in the words of Philip Kotler. According to him, marketing management is: The art and science of choosing target markets and getting, keeping, and growing customers through creating, delivering, and communicating superior customer value. The definition focuses “superior customer value.” Customer Value primarily is the incremental benefit which a customer derives from consuming a product after paying in return. The term value signifies the benefit that a customer gets from a product. It is the difference between the benefits (sum of tangible and intangible benefits) and the cost. Customer value is dependent on the three factors – Quality, Service and Price. The value of a product increases with its quality and service, as the benefits increase. On the other hand, the value decreases with increase in price because of the increase in costs increase in this case.

As “superior customer value” is the created when customers are willing to pay more for your product or service than competitor or when they prefer your version of a product or service to all others because it meets their needs better and maybe even exceeds their expectations. As a marketer you should view marketing both from social and managerial dimensions. The social aspect of marketing was put forth by Paul Mazur. He defined marketing as the creation and delivery of a standard of living to society. The standard of living suggests the level of wealth, comfort, material goods, and necessities available to a certain socio-economic class or geographical region. Thus the products and services offered by organisations (both commercial, and non-commercial) have a direct or indirect bearing on people’s standard of living. We are also aware of the fact how products/services such as sanitary napkins, electric bulbs, telephone, cars, tractors, aero planes, cinema, antibiotics, anesthesia, and birth control pill enriched human life over the period of time in terms of improved standard of living.

Philip Kotler whose seminal text Marketing Management was first published in 1967 beautifully described the meaning of marketing in three words as “meeting needs profitably.” Thus the most fundamental concept, which must be realised as being the basis of all marketing activities, is the existence of human needs. It is these human needs which form the starting point for all marketing activities. Today, if you look around, Start-ups are the order of the day. The young and progressive entrepreneurs are jumping on to this bandwagon by every passing day. You must remember that if you are an entrepreneur who wants to start a new business, you should have a product or an idea in your mind. In fact you have to decide what product/service you should manufacture and sell. How do you decide this? The answer to this question lies with you i.e. the entrepreneur has to first decide what product he should select. This is possible only if one can identify the needs, and wants which require satisfaction among human beings. Once he has identified the need of a group of human beings (called market segment), he can determine the product, which can help to satisfy that need. This is a part of the modern philosophy of marketing or the marketing concept.

SCOPE & SIGNIFICANCE OF MARKETING

Do you think that the firms while carrying out their marketing efforts involve in offering only the physical products such as toothpaste or a detergent powder? In case your answer is ‘yes’ that would be a narrow view of the ‘offerings’ or ‘entities’ being marketed by them. In fact, organisations offer a wide range of ‘products’ or entities. They include goods, services, events, experiences, persons, places, properties, organisations, information, and ideas. Let us have a quick glance at each these entities.

  1. Goods: Physical goods include agricultural commodities, fish, eggs, newspapers, chocolates, laptops, televisions and furniture.
  2. Services: Services sector is the largest sector in the world and over 63% of the total global wealth comes from the services sector. This sector accounts for over 53% of India’s GVA. Services include tourism, travel, hospitality, healthcare, education, banking and insurance.
  3. Events: Marketers promote time-based events ranging from local events (e.g. Hornbill Festival in Nagaland, and Kerala Boat Festival) to national events (e.g. 150 Years of Celebrating the Mahatma) and international events (e.g. India International Trade Fair, and the Tokyo Olympics 2021).
  4. Experiences: A firm can market personalised or customised experiences such as Ramoji Film City Star Experience, Climbing up the Mount Everest, and a weekend with stalwarts of cricket. Personalisation can be a huge boon for retailers and consumers. 
  5. Persons: Many companies are using personal marketing for promoting their brands. Renowned personalities market themselves as well as different products or services. Cristiano Ronaldo, the renowned football player endorsing Clear Shampoo and Nike sports shoes; famous film personalities Aishwarya Rai Bachchan endorsing L’Oreal Shampoo and Salman Khan serving as a brand ambassador of Pepsi are a few examples. Self-branding became an emerging area.  
  6. Places: Nations, regions, states, and cities compete for investments, tourists, and companies. Some of the place marketers are governments, real estate agents, and investors. Singapore’s New Asia, India’s Incredible India, and Mumbai’s City of Dreams are a few examples of how branding is done with logo, slogan and so on.
  7. Properties: They are either real estate or financial assets which are bought and sold. Godrej Properties and Oberoi Realty in the real estate sector, and ICICI Direct and HDFC Securities among Demat service providers are some examples. 
  8. Organisations: Museums (e.g. National Museum in New Delhi and Salar Jung Museum in Hyderabad), non-profit organisations (e.g. HelpAge India and Smile Foundation), performing arts organisations (e.g. Inspire India Programme by Shankar Mahadevan Academy, Music awards by Sangeet Natak Akademi), and corporations (e.g. Tata Motors’ corporate brand promise – ‘Connecting Aspirations’) aim for enhancing their organisational image through systematic marketing efforts. 
  9. Information: Google became part of everybody’s life as we depend on its Search for information. Google’s mission is “to organize the world’s information and make it universally accessible and useful.” There are many such marketers like publishers, educational institutions, and newspapers which offer ‘information’ as their product. 
  10. Ideas: Social marketers are engaged in idea marketing. This is also known as social marketing. It is an approach used to develop activities aimed at changing or maintaining people’s behaviour for the benefit of individuals and society as a whole. Swachh Bharat Abhiyan or Clean India mission is a country-wide initiative taken by the Government of India in 2014 to eliminate open defecation and improve solid waste management. The governments and health organisations all over the world tried to convince the people about wearing face masks appropriately, maintaining physical distance, and washing one’s hands frequently to combat the Coronavirus is another example.  


NEEDS WANTS AND DEMANDS

Lets us now try to understand Marketing Concepts that are a part of the definitions: Need(s), Want(s) and Demand(s) 

Need(s) 
Needs are the state of being deprived of something. Needs can be grouped into five categories as detailed below. Needs are not invented by marketer rather the widely known academic model of needs was proposed by psychologist Abraham Maslow. Although this model is predominantly used in motivational studies but is also applied for studying customers’ needs.
The Maslow’s theory of hierarchy categorises human needs into five levels. Abraham Maslow pursued to explain why people are driven by particular need at a particular time. According to his theory, human needs are arranged in a hierarchy from most to least pressing. These include physiological needs, safety needs, social needs, esteem needs, and self-actualisation needs. Marketers need to know which specific need their brand is targeted to. Let us illustrate with some of the brands that are targeting these five levels of customer needs:
a) Physiological needs: Food, water, shelter – All food items from liquids to solids etc. Amul, Aashirvaad atta, Britannia, Vimal, State housing board properties fall under the purview of this category. 
b) Safety needs: Security, protection - Insurance, Banking products, sanitizer, OTC products Vaccination and Immunization programs by the state. 
c) Social needs: Sense of belonging, love - Bharat Matrimony, Social media, Netflix India etc. fall under this category. 
d) Esteem needs: Self-esteem, recognition, status – Premium niche brands of all product categories and services, Allen Solly, iPhone, Dior, Jaguar Cars, International travel and recreation.etc. 
e) Self-actualisation: Self-development and realisation - Teach for India, Azim Premji Foundation etc. 

From the customer perspective consumer’s needs can be categorized as follows: 
1. Stated needs: Here the customer explicitly states what they want. For example, Ms Divya wants to open a bank account. 
2. Real needs: This is more specific. Ms Divya wants to open a Savings Bank account with a nearby public sector bank in her residential locality. 
3. Unstated needs: Ms Divya anticipates the bank to give her an International Debit Card along with a cheque book facility. 
4. Delight needs: Ms Divya like the premises of the bank for its upkeep and neatness where the employees and fellow customers exhibit the most appropriate and decent behaviors. 
5. Secret needs: Ms Divya is reluctant to confess that she has a negative attitude towards Netbanking facility. 

Want(s) 
Wants are the form taken by human needs as they are shaped by culture and individual personality. These are essentially dependent upon needs. For example, a person in North India would satisfy his hunger with rajma and chawal while a person from South India would like to have fish curry and rice. This clearly explains their want(s) backed by culture and their social environment. 

Demand(s) 
You may want to watch the final IPL match being played abroad. The big question is do you have money and time to travel abroad to watch the match? If yes, then it’s a demand. Wants backed by willingness and purchasing power is known as demand. By and large all marketing companies from FMCG, consumer durables, to service firms firstly do try to recognize the needs and want of customers, conduct market research, obtain regular feedback and market intelligence with the help of the sales force in ascertaining the unmet customer needs and then only it will be possible to fulfill needs so identified. For example the floor managers at Big Bazaar retail outlets do mingle and interact regularly with customers to try and keep them happy. 




Question No. 1 

(b) Discuss the various stages involved in the consumer buying process with reference to buying a smart phone brand of your choice. 

Even buying decision involves an element of active reasoning. The manner in which this active reasoning manifests itself is illustrated in Figure I. In making a buying decision the consumer goes through the five stages of: 
i) problem recognition, 
ii) pre-purchase information search, 
iii) evaluation of alternatives, 
iv) purchase decision, and 
v) post purchase behaviour

However, in case of routine purchases, the consumer may skip the second and third stages and straight away go to the stage of purchase decision. But in case of purchase decision involving extensive problem solving, the consumer is likely to go through all the five stages in the specified sequence. The important point to note is that the buying process starts much before the actual purchase and has implications even after the purchase has been made. This should give ideas to the marketer as to how he has to start designing his marketing strategy in order to achieve his specified marketing objectives.



 Let us understand the stages in decision-making process with the help of a Mr. Rao's specific decision to purchase a briefcase.

i) Problem Recognition: The buying process starts with the buyer recognising a need or problem. Lets come back to Mr. Rao he feels very uncomfortable carrying his papers, files and lunch packet in his hand or in a plastic bag to his work place. Sometimes, the papers and even files from his hand and get spoiled Mr. Rao feels the need for a suitable holder to carry papers to and fro from his office and has identified a briefcase as the solution to his problem. 

ii) Pre-Purchase Information Search: In response to the stimuli provided by the need for a briefcase, Mr. Rao starts searching for information on the kinds of briefcases available in the market. Search can be of two types: internal and external. Internal search refers to recalling relevant information stored in the memory. For instance, Mr. Rao may recall having seen the different kinds of briefcases used by his colleagues. Or he may recall having seen some advertisements for briefcases on the television or in some magazines and newspapers. External search refers to the deliberate and voluntary seeking of new information regarding the product/brand under consideration. Mr. Rao can seek information from the following three sources: 
- Personal sources: family, friends, colleagues, neighbours. 
- Commercial sources: advertisements, retailers, salesmen. 
- Public sources: seeing others, consumer information centres.
By tapping all these sources of information, Mr. Rao is able to identify the different types of briefcase on the basis of material, branded versus unbranded, high-medium low priced. A wide variety of materials are used for making briefcases ranging from the best leather to rexine to plastic. There are branded briefcases available and Mr. Rao can choose from the well known VIP, Safari and Aristocrat and some less known local brands, or he can choose to buy an unbranded briefcase. The price range varies according to the size the material that has gone into its make of the briefcase etc. Also, there are a number of other features which can influence the choice, such as type of lock, and number of partitions and pockets for keeping different documents. By the end of this stage, Mr. Rao has gathered enough information about different kinds of briefcases available and has narrowed down his alternatives to moulded plastic, branded briefcase. Within this broad range there are various brands and price ranges to make the final choice from.

iii) Evaluation of Alternatives: Mr. Rao will make his final decision using certain evaluative criteria. The most commonly used criteria are: (i) product attribute, (ii) the relative importance of each attribute to the consumer, (iii) brand image, (iv) attitudes towards the different brands or alternatives under considerations. For instance, the product attributes of the (Plastic branded briefcase) alternatives identified by Mr. Rao are: unbreakable, lightweight, spaciousness, reliability of locking system, colour, and price. Mr. Rao attaches maximum importance to the product attributes of light weight and spaciousness as compared to other attributes. He already has some kind of attitude towards the various brands developed in the stage of information search which will affect his final decision. This stage of the buying decision process gives the marketer a chance to modify his product offering in keeping with the relative importance attached to each attribute by various consumer segments, altering beliefs and attitudes about his own brand, and calling attention to neglected product attributes,

iv) Purchase Decision: In the evaluation stage, Mr. Rao has ranked the various brands in terms of his first, second and third preference. In short, he has made up his mind about which brand he wants to buy. However, Mr. Rao may finally end up buying a brand which is not his most preferred. This may happen because attitudes of others and ''situational factors. For instance, when Mr. Rao goes to the shop to make his purchase, the shopkeeper's negative remarks about his (Mr. Rao's) most preferred brand may make him change his mind. Also, it is possible that Mr. Rao's preferred brand is not available, or there is a very attractive price discount on the brand ranked third by him which eventually makes him change his mind.

v) Post Purchase Behaviour: After purchasing the briefcase, if Mr. Rao finds that its performance or utility matches up to his expectation, Mr. Rao will feel satisfied with his purchase. The satisfaction will reinforce Mr. Rao's perceived favourable image of the brand, which is likely to be extended to the entire range of products manufactured by the Company. Also, Mr. Rao is likely to strongly recommend the brand when his friends ask his advice for buying a new briefcase. A satisfied customer is thus a very powerful source of influence for potential customers. However, if Mr. Rao feels that the briefcase which he has purchased is not up to his expectation, then he is likely to feel dissatisfied. The gap between expected (or perceived) and the actual performances cause discomfort or dissonance to the buyer. As a result of this, Mr. Rao may decide to stop buying other products sold by the same company and also warn his friends about the poor utility of his briefcase. To reduce his own state of discomfort or dissonance arising from the feeling that he has not made the right choice, Mr. Rao can: (i) reevaluate the unchosen brands and downgrade their desirability by identifying some negative features, and (ii) search for information to confirm his choice.
 




MMPC-006 - Marketing Management - MBA and MBA (Banking & Finance)

Solutions to Assignments

                            MBA and MBA (Banking & Finance)

MMPC-006 - Marketing Management

MMPC-006/TMA/JULY/2022

Note: Attempt all the questions and submit this assignment to the coordinator of your study centre. (Last date of submission for July 2022 session is 31st October, 2022 and for January 2023 session is 30th April, 2023).

Question No. 1.                                                                                 CLICK HERE
(a) Define and discuss the term “Marketing”. Elaborate its scope and significance in an enterprise. Needs, Wants and Demands are always the starting point for marketing activities. Explain with a suitable example. 

(b) Discuss the various stages involved in the consumer buying process with reference to buying a smart phone brand of your choice. 

Question No. 2.                                                                                CLICK HERE
(a) Discuss the product line decisions that a firm should consider to pursue and consolidate its position in the face of competition. 

(b) Discuss the concept of Product Life Cycle. Elaborate the various stages by taking the example of a shaving cream brand of your choice. What alternatives will you suggest for the brand during its decline stage and why? Offer your reasons. 

Question No. 3.                                                                               CLICK HERE
(a) Discuss the various factors that affect the Pricing decisions in a firm. Explain the three cost oriented pricing approaches that a firm can use in pricing their products/services. 

(b) Enterprises are sensing the need to become more integrated in their marketing communication efforts. Discuss with an example where you have been a part of the integration process or may have come across the said integration. 

Question No. 4.                                                                                CLICK HERE
(a) What do you understand by the term Advertising? Discuss the various types of advertising and the major role that advertising plays in the promotion of a firms offering. Explain by taking one example each from a product and a service of your choice. 

(b) Explain the nature and role of Personal Selling. Discuss the steps involved in the selling process by taking an example of a financial software product for a medium enterprises





Question No. 5 - MMPC-005: Quantitative Analysis for Managerial Applications - MBA and MBA (Banking & Finance)

Solutions to Assignments

                            MBA and MBA (Banking & Finance)

MMPC-005: Quantitative Analysis for Managerial Applications

MMPC-005/TMA/JULY/2022


Question No. 5. Write short notes on any two of the following:-   
(a) Mathematical Properties of Arithmetic Mean 



(b) Stratified Sampling 

Stratified sampling is more complex than simple random sampling, but where applied properly, stratification can significantly increase the statistical efficiency of sampling.

The concept: 
Suppose we are interested in estimating the demand of non aerated beverages in a residential colony. We know that the consumption of these beverages has some relationship with the family income and that the families residing in this colony can be classified into three categories-viz., high income, middle income and low income families. If we are doing a sampling study we would like to make sure that our sample does have some members from each of the three categories-perhaps in the same proportion as the total number of families belonging to that category-in which case we would have used proportional stratified sampling. On the other hand, if we know that the variation in the consumption of these beverages from one family to another is relatively large for the low income category whereas there is not much variation in the high income category, we would perhaps pick up a smaller than proportional sample from the high income category and a larger than proportional sample from-the low income category. This is what is done in disproportional stratified sampling. The basis for using stratified sampling is the existence of strata such that each stratum is more homogeneous within and markedly different from another stratum. The higher the homogeneity within each stratum, the higher the gain in statistical efficiency due to stratification. 

What are strata?: 
The strata are so defined that they constitute a partition of the population-i.e., they are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. Every element of the population belongs to one stratum and not more than one stratum, by definition. This is shown in Figure II in the form of a Venn diagram, where three strata have been shown. A stratum can therefore he conceived of as a sub-population which is more homogeneous than the complete population-the members of a stratum, are similar to each other and are different from the members of another stratum in the characteristics that we are measuring. 

Proportional stratified sampling: 
Sampling Methods After defining the strata, a simple random sample is picked up from each of the strata. If we want to have a total sample of size 100, this number is allocated to the different strata-either in proportion to the size of the stratum in the population or otherwise. If the different strata have similar variances of the characteristic being measured, then the statistical efficiency will be the highest if the sample sizes for different strata are in the same proportion as the size of the respective stratum in the population. Such a design is called proportional stratified sampling and is shown in Table 4 below. 

Disproportional stratified sampling: If the different strata in the population have unequal variances of the characteristic being measured, then the sample size allocation decision should consider the variance as well. It would be logical to have a smaller sample from a stratum where the variance is smaller than from another stratum where the variance is higher. In fact, if


Stratified sampling in practice: 
Stratification of the population is quite common in managerial applications because it also allows to draw separate conclusions for each stratum. For example, if we are estimating the demand for a non-aerated beverage in a residential colony and have stratified the population based on the family income, then we would have data pertaining to each stratum which might be useful in making many marketing decisions. Stratification requires us to identify the strata such that the intra-stratum differences are as small as possible and inter-strata differences as large as possible. However, whether a stratum is homogeneous or not-in the characteristic that we are measuring e.g. consumption of non-aerated beverage in the family in the previous example-can be known only at the end of the study whereas stratification is to be done at the beginning of the study and that is why some other variable like family income is to be used for stratification. This is based on the implicit assumption that family income and consumption of non-aerated beverages are very closely associated with each other. If this assumption is true, stratification would increase the statistical efficiency of sampling. In many studies, it is not easy to find such associated variables which can be used as the basis for stratification and then stratification may not help in increasing the statistical efficiency, although the cost of the study goes up due to the additional costs of stratification. 

(c) Exponential Distribution 

Time between breakdown of machines, duration of telephone calls, life of an electric bulb are examples of situations where the Exponential distribution has been found useful. In the previous unit, while discussing the discrete probability distributions, we have examined the Poisson process and the resulting Poisson distribution. In the Poisson process, we were interested in the random variable of number of occurrences of an event within a specific time or space. Thus, using the knowledge of Poisson process, we have calculated the probability that 0, 1, 2 …. accidents will occur in any month. Quite often, another type of random variable assumes importance in the context of a Poisson process. We may be interested in the random variable of the lapse of time before the first occurrence of the event. Thus, for a machine, we note that the first failure or breakdown of the machine may occur after 1 month or 1.5 months etc. The random variable of the number of failures within a specific time, as we have already seen, is discrete and follows the Poisson distribution. The variable, time of first failure, is continuous and the Exponential p.d.f. characterises the uncertainty. If any situation is found to satisfy the conditions of a Poisson process, and if the average occurrence of the event of interest is m per unit time, then the number of occurrences in a given length of time t has a Poisson distribution with parameter mt, and the time between any two consecutive occurrences will be Exponential with parameter m. This can be used to derive the p.d.f. of the Exponential distribution.



 
If we assume that the occurrence of an event corresponds to customers arriving for servicing, then the time between the occurrence would correspond to the inter-arrival time (IAT), and m would correspond to the arrival rate. Exponential has been used widely to characterise the IAT distribution. The Exponential p.d.f. is also used for characterising service time distributions. The parameter 'm' in that case, corresponds to the service rate. We take up an example to show the probability calculations using the Exponential p.d.f. In the final section of this unit, we will be illustrating through an example, the use of the Exponential distribution in decision making.

Example:
The distribution of the total time a light bulb will burn from the moment it is first put into service is known to be exponential with mean time between failure of the bulbs equal to 1000 hrs. What is the probability that a bulb will burn more than 1000 hrs.

Solution:

 

(d) Time Series Analysis

Time series analysis is one of the most powerful methods in use, especially for short term forecasting purposes. From the historical data one attempts to obtain the underlying pattern so that a suitable model of the process can be developed, which is then used for purposes of forecasting or studying the internal structure of the process as a whole. We have already seen in earlier unit that a variety of methods such as subjective methods, moving averages and exponential smoothing, regression methods, causal models and time series analysis are available for forecasting. Time series analysis looks for the dependence between values in a time series (a set of values recorded at equal time intervals) with a view to accurately identify the underlying pattern of the data.
In the case of quantitative methods of forecasting, each technique makes explicit assumptions about the underlying pattern. For instance, in using regression models we had first to make a guess on whether a linear or parabolic model should be chosen and only then could we proceed with the estimation of parameters and model-development. We could rely on mere visual inspection of the data or its graphical plot to make the best choice of the underlying model. However, such guess work, through not uncommon, is unlikely to yield very accurate or reliable results. In time series analysis, a systematic attempt is made to identify and isolate different kinds of patterns in the data. The four kinds of patterns that are most frequently encountered are horizontal, non-stationary (trend or growth), seasonal and cyclical. Generally, a random or noise component is also superimposed.
We shall first examine the method of decomposition wherein a model of the time-series in terms of these patterns can be developed. This can then be used for forecasting purposes as illustrated through an example. A more accurate and statistically sound procedure to identify the patterns in a time-series is through the use of auto-correlations. Auto-correlation refers to the correlation between the same variable at different time lags and was discussed in Unit 18. Auto-correlations can be used to identify the patterns in a time series and suggest appropriate stochastic models for the underlying process. A brief outline of common processes and the Box-Jenkins methodology is then given. 



Wednesday, 5 October 2022

Question No. 3 - MMPC-005: Quantitative Analysis for Managerial Applications - MBA and MBA (Banking & Finance)

Solutions to Assignments

                            MBA and MBA (Banking & Finance)

MMPC-005: Quantitative Analysis for Managerial Applications

MMPC-005/TMA/JULY/2022


Question No. 3. What do you understand by Primary Data? What are the various methods of collecting primary data? Also, mention what points to be kept in mind while designing the questionnaire?

Data used in statistical study is termed either “Primary” or “secondary” depending upon whether it was collected specifically for the study in question or for some other purpose. When the data used in a statistical study was collected under the control and supervision of the investigation, such type of data is referred to as “Primary data”. When the data was not collected by the investigator, but is derived from other sources then such data is referred to as “secondary data”.
The difference between primary and secondary data is only in terms of degree. For example, data which is primary in the hands of one become secondary in the hands of another. Suppose in investigator wants to study the working conditions of labour in a big industrial concerned. If he collects the data himself or through his agent, then this data is referred to as primary data. But if this data is used by someone else, then this data becomes secondary data.

METHOD OF COLLECTING PRIMARY DATA

Primary data may either be collected through the observation method or through the questionnaire method. In the observation, the investigator asks no questions, but he simply observes the phenomenon under consideration, and records the necessary data. Sometimes individuals make the observation; on other occasion, mechanical and electronic devices do the job. 

In the observation method, it may be difficult to produce accurate data. Physical difficulties on the part of the observer may result in errors. Because of these limitations in the observation method, the questionnaire method is most widely used for collecting data. In the questionnaire method, the investigator draws up a questionnaire containing all the relevant questions which he wants to ask from his respondents, and accordingly records the responses. Questionnaire method may be conducted through personal interview, or by mail or telephone.

Personal Interviews In this method the interviewer sits face-to-face with the respondent and records his responses. In this method, the information is likely to be more accurate and reliable because the interviewer can clear up doubts and cross-checks the respondents. This method is time consuming and can be very costly if the number of respondents is large and widely distributed.

Mail Questionnaire In this method a list of questions (questionnaire) is prepare and mailed to the respondents. The respondents are expected to fill in the questionnaire and send it back to the investigator. Sometimes, mail questionnaire are placed in respondents’ hands through other means such as attaching them to consumers’ products or putting them in newspapers or magazines. This method can be easily adopted where the field of investigation is very vast and the respondents are spread over a wise geographical area. But this method can be adopted only where the respondents are literate and can understand written question and answer them.

Telephone  In this method the investigator asks the relevant questions from the respondents over the telephone. This method is less expensive but it has limited application since only those respondents can be interviewed who have telephones; moreover, very few questions can be asked on telephone 
 
The questionnaire method is a very efficient and fast method of collecting data. But it has a very serious limitation as it may be extremely difficult to collect data on certain sensitive aspects such as income, age or personal life details, which the respondent may not be willing to share with the investigator. This is so with other methods also different people may interpret the questions differently and consequently there may be errors and inaccuracies in data collection.

DESIGNING OF QUESTIONNAIRE

The success of collecting data through a questionnaire depends mainly on how skillfully and imaginatively the questionnaire has been designed. A badly designed questionnaire will never be able to gather the relevant data. In designing the questionnaire, some of the important points to be kept in mind are: 
1. Covering letter : Every questionnaire should be contain a covering letter. The covering letter should highlight the purpose of study and assure the respondent the all responses will be kept confidential. It is desirable that some inducement or motivation is provided to the respondent for better response. The objectives of the study and questionnaire design should be such that the respondent derives a sense of satisfaction through his involvement. 

2. Number of questions should be kept to the minimum: The fewer the question, the greater the chances of getting a better responses and having all the questions answered. Otherwise the respondent may feel disinterested and provide inaccurate answers particularly towards the end of the questionnaire. Informing the question, the investigator has to take into consideration several factors such as the purpose of study, the time and resources available. As a rough indication, the number of questions should be between 15 to 40. In case the number of questions is more than 25, it is desirable that the questionnaire be divided into various part to ensure clarity. 

3. Questions should be simple, short and unambiguous: The questions should be simple, short, easy to understand and such that their answers are unambiguous. For example, if the question is ‘Are you literate? The respondent may have doubts about the meaning of literacy. To some literacy may mean a university degree whereas to others even the capacity to read and write may mean literacy. Hence it is desirable to specify whether you have passed (a) high school (b) graduation (c) post graduation etc. Questions can be of Yes/No type, or of multiple choice depending on the requirement o the investigator. Open-ended questions should generally be avoided. 

4. Questions of sensitive or personal nature should be avoided: The questions should not be such as would require the respondent to disclose any private, personal or confidential information. For example, questions relating to sales, profits, material happiness etc. should be avoided as far as possible. If such questions are necessary in the survey, an assurance should be given to the respondent that the information provided shall be kept strictly confidential and shall not be used at any cost to their disadvantage. 

5. Answers to questions should not require calculations: The questions should be framed in such a way that their answers do not require any calculations.

6. Logical arrangement Collection of Data The questions should be logically arranged so that there is a continuity of responses and the respondent does not feel the need to refer back to the previous questions. It is desirable that the questionnaire should begin with some introductory questions followed by vital questions crucial to he survey and ending with some light questions so that the overall impression of the respondent is a happy one. 

7. Cross-check and Footnotes: The questionnaire should contain some such questions which act as a cross-check to the reliability of the information provided. For example, when a question relating to income is asked, it is desirable to include a question : “are you an income tax assessee?”

For the purpose of clarity, certain questions which might create a doubt in the mind of respondents, it is desirable to give footnotes. The purpose of footnotes is to clarify all possible doubts which may emerge from the questions and cannot be removed while answer them. For example, if a question relates to income limit like 1000-2000, 2000—3000; etc., a person getting exactly Rs. 2,000 should know in which income class he has to place himself.

Question No. 2 - MMPC-005: Quantitative Analysis for Managerial Applications - MBA and MBA (Banking & Finance)

Solutions to Assignments

                            MBA and MBA (Banking & Finance)

MMPC-005: Quantitative Analysis for Managerial Applications

MMPC-005/TMA/JULY/2022


Question No. 2. Why is forecasting so important in business? Explain the application of forecasting for long term decisions. 

The future is inherently uncertain and since time immemorial man has made attempts to unravel the mystery of the future. In the past it was the crystal gazer or a person allegedly in possession of some supernatural powers who would make predications about the things-to be-major events or the rise and fall of kings. In today's world, predictions are being made daily in the realm of business, industry and politics. Since the operation of any capital enterprise has a large lead time (1-5 years is typical), it is clear that a factory conceived today is for some future demand and the whole operation is dependent on the actual demand coming up to the level projected much earlier. During this period many circumstances, which might not even have been imagined, could come up. For instance, there could be development of other industries, or a major technological breakthrough that may render the originally conceived product obsolete; or a social upheaval and change-of government may redefine priorities of growth and development; or an unusual weather condition like drought or floods may alter completely the buying potential of the originally conceived market. This is only a partial list to suggest how uncertainties from a variety of sources can enter to make the task of prediction of the future extremely difficult.
It is proper at this stage to emphasise the distinction between prediction and forecasting. Forecasting generally refers to the scientific methodology that often uses past data along with some well-defined assumptions or 'model' to come up with a 'forecast' of future demand. In that sense, forecasting is objective. A prediction is a subjective estimate made by an individual by using his intuitive 'hunch' which may in fact come out true. But the fact that it is subjective (A's prediction may be different from B's and C's) and nonrealisable as a Well-documented computer programme (which could be used by anyone) deprives it of much value. This is not to discount. the role of intuition or subjectivity in practical decision-making. In fact, for complex long term decisions, intuitive methods such as the Delphi technique are most popular. The opinion of a well informed, educated person is likely to be reliable, reflecting the well-considered contribution of a host of complex factors in a relationship that may be difficult to explicitly quantify. Often forecasts are modified based on subjective judgment and experience to obtain predictions used in planning and decision making.
The primary purpose of forecasting. is to provide valuable information for planning the design and operation of the enterprise. Planning decisions may be classified as long term, medium term and short term. Long term decisions include decisions like plant expansion or. new product introduction which may require new technologies or a. complete transformation in social or moral fabric of society. Such decisions are generally, characterised by lack of quantitative information and absence of historical data on which to base, the forecast of future events. Intuition and the collected opinion of. experts in the field generally play a significant role in developing forecasts for such decisions.

Technological Forecasting 
Technological growth is often haphazard, especially in developing countries like India. This is because Technology seldom evolves and there are frequent technology transfers -due to imports of knowhow resulting in a leap-frogging phenomenon. In spite of this, it is generally seen that logarithms of many technological variables show linear trends with time, showing exponential growth. Some extrapolations reported by Rohatgi et al. are 
• Passenger kms carried by Indian Airlines (Figure I) 
• Fertilizer applied per hectare of cropped area (Figure II) 
• Demand and supply of petroleum crude (Figure III) 
• Installed capacity of electricity generation in millions of KW (figure IV). 

Figure I: Passenger Km Carried by Indian Air Lines 




Delphi 

This is a subjective method relying on the opinion of experts designed to minimise bias and error of judgment. A Delphi panel consists of a number of experts with an impartial leader or coordinator who organises the questions. Specific questions (rather than general opinions) with yes-no or multiple type answers or specific dates/events are sought from the experts. For instance, questions could be of the following kind : 
• When do you think the petroleum reserves of the country would be exhausted? (2020,2040, 2060) 
• When would the level of pollution in Delhi exceed danger limit? (as defined by a particular agency)? 
• What would the population of India be in 2020, 2040 and 2060? 
• When would fibre optics become a commercial viability for communication? 

A summary of the responses of the participants is sent to each expert participating in the Delphi panel after a statistical analysis. For a forecast of when an event is likely to happen, the most optimistic and pessimistic estimates along with a distribution of other responses is given to the participant. On the basis of this information the experts may like to revise their earlier estimates and give revised estimates to the coordinator. It may be mentioned that the identities of the experts are not revealed to each other so that bias or influence by reputation is kept to a minimum. Also the feedback response is statistical in nature without revealing who made which forecast. The Delphi method is an iterative procedure in which revisions are carried out by the experts till the coordinator gets a stable response.
The method is very efficient, if properly conducted, as it provides a systematic framework for collecting expert opinion. By virtue of anonymity, statistical analysis and feedback of results and provision for forecast revision, results obtained are free of bias and generally reliable. Obviously, the background of the experts and their knowledge of the field is crucial. This is where the role of the coordinator in identifying the proper experts is important.

Opinion Polls 

Opinion polls are a very common method of gaining knowledge about consumer tastes, responses to a new product, popularity of a person or leader, reactions to an election result or the likely future prime minister after the impending polls. In any opinion poll two things are of primary importance. First, the information that is sought and secondly the target population from whom the information is sought. Both these factors must be kept in mind while designing the appropriate mechanism for conducting the opinion poll. Opinion polls may be conducted through 
• Personal interviews. 
• Circulation of questionnaires. 
• Meetings in groups. 
• Conferences, seminars and symposia. 

The method adopted depends largely on the population, the kind of information desired and the budget available. For instance, if information from a very large number of people is to be collected a suitably designed questionnaire could be mailed to die people concerned. Designing a proper questionnaire is itself a major task. Care should be taken to avoid ambiguous questions. Preferably, the responses should be short one word answers or ticking an appropriate reply from a set of multiple choices. This makes the questionnaire easy for the respondent to fill and also easy for the analyst to analyse. For example, the final analysis could be summarised by saying 

• 80% of the population expressed opinion A, 
• 10% expressed opinion B, 
• 5% expressed opinion C, 
• 5% expressed no opinion. 

Similarly in the context of forecasting of product demand, it is common to arrive at the sales forecast by aggregating the opinion of area salesmen. The forecast could be modified based on some kind of rating for each salesman or an adjustment for environmental uncertainties. Decisions in the area of future R&D or new technologies too are based on the opinions of experts. The Delphi method treated in this Section is just an example of a systematic gathering of opinion of experts in the concerned field. The major advantage of opinion polls lies in the fact that a well formed opinion considers the multifarious subjective and objective factors which may not even be possible to enumerate explicitly, and yet they may have a bearing on the concerned forecast or question. Moreover the aggregation of opinion polls tends to eliminate the bias that is bound to be present in any subjective, human evaluation. In fact for long term decisions, opinion polls of opinions of the experts constitute a very reliable method for forecasting and planning. 

All Questions - MCO-021 - MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS - Masters of Commerce (Mcom) - First Semester 2024

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